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☆ Democrats Hold Leads in 4 Crucial Races That Could Decide Senate Control
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Jonathan Weisman | Ruth Igielnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Democratic candidates for the Senate in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lead their Republican rivals and are running well ahead of President Biden in key states where he continues to struggle, according to polls by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College. The battleground surveys of registered voters indicate that the president’s difficulties against former President Donald J. Trump may not be enough to sink other Democrats, especially Senate incumbents who are facing less-well-known Republicans. Ticket-splitters are not abundant — about 10 percent of Trump voters back the Democratic candidate for Senate in the four states, while about 5 percent of Biden supporters back the Republican. But those voters are enough to give Democrats a chance at holding the Senate, where they currently hold a one-seat majority. To maintain control, the Democrats would have to sweep every competitive Senate seat and win the White House.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Senate, Republican, The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College, Trump voters, Democratic, White Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

☆ Why America Still Can't Get Rid of High Prices, Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Typically, price increases are a slow-moving process, so it is rare to see core inflation accelerate this much this quickly. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has found longer-run expectations for inflation have leveled out at 2% — the Fed's target. These one-offs have had an outsize impact on the overall inflation picture. Ahead of 2024, the contribution from acyclical components to core inflation was essentially zero. The strong growth in private demand suggests that second-quarter GDP could be even more robust.

Persons: I've Organizations: America, Federal Reserve, PCE, Atlanta Fed Locations: Real

☆ Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition. The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: Democratic, The New York Times, Siena College, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Mr Locations: Gaza, Michigan, Arizona , Nevada , Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania , Michigan

☆ Sweetgreen is selling steak for the first time, and it hopes the pricey add-on will bring protein-hungry customers in for dinner
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Grace Dean | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sweetgreen introduced caramelized garlic steak, which is now the most expensive protein on its menu. The salad chain, which has over 225 locations, added caramelized garlic steak on Tuesday. Axios reported that it's the first red meat Sweetgreen has sold. In comparison, Sweetgreen charges $2.75 to add roasted tofu, $3.75 to add blackened or roasted chicken, and $6.15 to add miso glazed salmon. Neman said that Sweetgreen introduced steak to boost its dinner sales and expand its customer base.

Persons: Sweetgreen, —, Jonathan Neman, they've Organizations: Service, New York Times, Times Locations: Manhattan, Boston, Neman, Australia, New Zealand

☆ These 2 charts show just how little faith Americans have in the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Paul Squire | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Consumers aren't buying it, per the latest monthly survey of how Americans feel about the economy. These charts show how gloomy Americans feel, despite the numbers. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIndicators be damned: US consumers are still gloomy about the state of the economy. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: —, Joanne Hsu Organizations: Consumers, Service, University of Michigan, Business

☆ S&P 500 rebounds to less than 1% from a record after orderly three-week pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.

Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital

☆ China's consumer prices rise for 3rd month, factory deflation persists
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Citizens are shopping at a supermarket in Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu province, on March 9, 2024. China's consumer prices rose in April for a third straight month, while producer prices extended declines, suggesting resilient domestic demand, despite a shaky economic recovery. The consumer price index (CPI) edged up 0.3% in April from a year earlier, accelerating from a rise of 0.1% in March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday. CPI rose 0.1% from the previous month, reversing a drop of 1% in March and above a decline of 0.1% predicted by economists. The producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.5% in April from a year earlier, easing from a slide of 2.8% the previous month and compared with a forecast decline of 2.3%.

Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Labour, Communist Party Locations: Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu, China

☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish

☆ Consumers haven’t felt this bad about the economy since November
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Additionally, consumers are bracing for even higher price increases in the year ahead compared to readings from prior months, the survey found. However, the latest reading is still better than last May, when inflation was running at 4%, versus the latest reading of 3.5%. Long-run inflation expectations also rose, to 3.1% from 3.0% in April. Since inflation expectations can effectively control the pace of price hikes, businesses take those expectations into account when pricing goods and services. The survey suggests that the recent optimism consumers had about the state of the economy is waning.

Persons: Biden, FactSet, it’s, they’re, Joanne Hsu Organizations: New, New York CNN, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumers Locations: New York

☆ Thailand decriminalized cannabis 2 years ago. Its prime minister wants to ban it again.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Thibault Spirlet | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Thailand's prime minister has called for a ban on recreational cannabis in a major U-turn. Thailand was the first Asian country to decriminalize cannabis for recreational use in 2022. AdvertisementThailand's prime minister wants to ban cannabis just two years after his country decriminalized it for recreational use. AdvertisementThailand was the first Southeast Asian country to legalize medical cannabis in 2018, and the first Asian country to decriminalize recreational cannabis in 2022, according to Forbes. Other countries have legalized or decriminalized cannabis for recreational use in recent years, including Canada, Germany, Mexico, and South Africa.

Persons: Thailand's, Srettha Thavisin, —, Thavisin, Anutin Charnvirakul Organizations: Service, country's Ministry of Public Health, Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, District of Columbia, Prohibition Partners, Thailand's Center, Addiction Locations: Thailand, Thai, Canada, Germany, Mexico, South Africa

The three companies collectively operate 75 U.S. casinos that permit indoor smoking, where state law allows. States like Nevada and New Jersey have prohibited indoor smoking more broadly, but carved out exceptions for casinos. Legislation to end indoor smoking at casinos is in various stages in several states across the country, including New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Advocates for smoking bans point to research by C3 Gaming that concluded smoke-free casinos generate more revenue and outperform competitors that allow smoking. In Las Vegas, MGM Resorts opened the first casino resort on the Strip to prohibit indoor smoking and even smoking on the pool deck.

Persons: Boyd, Bally's, it's, Jan Jones Blackhurst, we've, Marc Oppenheimer, we're, it'll Organizations: Boyd Gaming, Bally's Entertainment, Caesars Entertainment, Trinity Health, Nonsmokers, Rights Foundation, Trinity, Caesars, The Securities, Exchange Commission, C3 Gaming, SBC, North, United Auto Workers, Disease Control, U.S, CNBC, Las Vegas, MGM Resorts, MGM Locations: Livonia , Michigan, Bally's, U.S, Nevada, New Jersey, New Jersey , Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, North America, United States, Pennsylvania, Bensalem, Philadelphia, Las

☆ Corporate America Is Going Un-Woke: Reversing DEI, Sustainability Plan
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Plenty of companies are reining in their rhetoric and in some cases action on issues such as sustainability and diversity. Over the past decade, many corporations have at least professed to take a more active role in social issues, under pressure from their customers and, more importantly, employees. After last year's Bud Light debacle, which was a real blow to its business, executives fear they'll be the next target of some anti-woke outcry. For the fourth quarter of 2020, 131 companies mentioned ESG, and 34 mentioned DEI or diversity and inclusion. This may be a great un-wokening, but maybe corporate America was actually never that committed to the idea in the first place.

Persons: Paul Polman, It's, Naomi Wheeless, Eventbrite, Donald Trump, Larry Fink, George Floyd's, ESG, Andrew Jones, there's, Bud Light, influencer Dylan Mulvaney, haven't, Philip Mirvis, Bud, they'll, they'd, Jones, it's, Fink, FactSet, — we're, wasn't, Alison Taylor, University's, we've, Roe, Wade, Taylor, isn't, Dylan Mulvaney, Bud Light's, Kenneth Pucker, Emily Stewart Organizations: Unilever, Unilever wasn't, Unilever isn't, Companies, Business, Sporting Goods, Conference Board's ESG, Morningstar, Babson, AIG, Amazon, ExxonMobil, University's Stern School of Business, Anheuser, Busch, Fletcher School, Tufts University Locations: Plenty, America, ESG, New, Charlottesville

☆ Less booze, more healthcare: How the spending habits of today's millennials compare to boomers 30 years ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the intervening 33 years, how young adults spent their money changed dramatically. Millennials are spending a lot more on healthcare and rented housingHealth insurance spending stands out between the average young adult in 1989 versus in 2022. Based on average data, young adults were spending roughly 60% more on apartments and other rented housing. Before adjusting 1989 data for inflation, young adults in 2022 spent 304% more on fresh fruits than young adults in 1989. Based on our analysis, the average young adult in 2022 was spending more on nonalcoholic beverages and less on alcoholic beverages than the average young adult in 1989.

Persons: —, Harry Met Sally, millennials, Gen Zers, Grace Hill, Gen Organizations: Service, Nintendo Game, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, BLS, Pew Research Center, CPI, Gallup Locations: Millennials

☆ Biden says economy is doing well, claims polls don’t tell the whole story
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Kevin Liptak | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“We’ve already turned it around,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett in Racine, Wisconsin, where he was promoting new economic investments that could result in thousands of new jobs. Biden pointed to surveys showing many Americans view their own economic situation favorably, even as they look negatively on the nationwide economy. “The idea that we’re in a situation where things are so bad that folks – I mean, we’ve created more jobs. “Let me say it this way – when I started this administration, people were saying there’s going to be a collapse to the economy. But surveys have shown voters giving Biden little credit for the record.

Persons: Joe Biden, “ We’ve, ” Biden, CNN’s Erin Burnett, Biden, ”, we’ve, “, Donald Trump Organizations: Wisconsin CNN, Biden, White Locations: Racine, Wisconsin, Racine , Wisconsin, Taiwan

☆ Warren Buffett says one question posed by AI has stumped economists for a century
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Michelle Castillo | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Calling AI profound, Buffet said that the technology is like a "genie" — once it gets let out of the bottle, it could have disastrous effects. It's a question, he said, that has riddled the best economists for a century. Warren Buffett is the first to admit he doesn't know much about artificial intelligence. This rebound has led to questions from corporate executives about factors that could be at play, from AI to return-to-office mandates. "Every company is looking at AI and deciding where it will help them," he said during a recent interview on CNBC's "Money Movers."

Persons: Buffett, Buffet, Warren Buffett, it's, couldn't, John Maynard Keynes, Keynes, Gary Cohn, Cohn, Dev Ittycheria, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Robert Solow, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, IBM, National Economic, CNBC, Nvidia, McKinsey, Harvard Business Locations: Omaha, Berkshire

☆ I tried the app TikTokers could embrace if a ban becomes reality — I'm not convinced it will attract Gen Zers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Lindsay Dodgson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The app's founder, Edison Chen, described it as "a space for the older generations to feel more comfortable" in an interview with D Magazine last year and somewhere "the parents of TikTok users can express themselves." AdvertisementThe spokesperson said that since the House voted on a TikTok ban, Clapper has seen 30,000 new users. While the app heavily leans on Gen X and Y, the spokesperson said Clapper is adjusting its strategy "to appeal to younger audiences." It would remind me a bit of early Vine, but a lot of content I'm being served seems to be reposted old clips scraped from YouTube and other platforms. On Clapper, I'm watching without really thinking.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Edison Chen, Chen, I'm, Zers, TikTok, Shannon Lee, Allie, Rebecca Starkey, It's, vaxxers Organizations: Service, Business, D, Pew Research Center, YouTube, Facebook

☆ Australia’s Qantas to pay $79 million to settle ‘ghost flights’ case
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Sydney — Qantas Airways has agreed to pay 120 million Australian dollars ($79 million) to settle a lawsuit over the sale of thousands of tickets on already canceled flights, in an attempt to end a reputational crisis that has engulfed the airline. The fine is the biggest ever for an Australian airline and among the largest globally in the sector, although some Australian banks and casino operators have faced higher penalties. “We recognize Qantas let down customers and fell short of our own standards,” CEO Vanessa Hudson said in a statement. It had said the airline sometimes sold tickets to flights weeks after they were canceled. The ACCC’s Cass-Gottlieb noted that the settlement included a promise from Qantas not to repeat the conduct.

Persons: Vanessa Hudson, ”, Hudson’s, Alan Joyce, Hudson, Gina Cass, Gottlieb, ACCC’s Cass Organizations: Sydney, Qantas Airways, Qantas, Australian Competition, Consumer Commission, Federal Court, ACCC Locations: Hudson

☆ Air National Guard leaders say proposal to move units to Space Force poses 'existential threat' to US national security
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Thomas Novelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The US Air National Guard rebuke a proposal to shift space mission units to the Space Force. "Our internal survey indicates about 70% of our personnel would retrain or retire rather than join the Space Force," Air Force Col. Michael Griesbaum, commander of the Alaska Air National Guard's 168th Wing, told reporters Friday. Airmen from the Colorado Air National Guard load equipment onto a C-17 Globemaster before departing for temporary duty in Washington, DC. AdvertisementBut Air National Guard leaders have expressed concern, saying it would set a clear precedent for other services to potentially take more resources from the National Guard model. "If LP 480 is successful, it will open the door to a wholesale harvesting of National Guard resources, both from the Air National Guard and the Army National Guard to the regular components."

Persons: —, Michael Griesbaum, Chance Johnson, Military.com, Air Force Frank Kendall, Alex Wong, Frank Kendall, We've, Kendall, Griesbaum, Jason Carr, Robert Brown, Jacob Hancock Kendall, Michael Bruno Organizations: US Air National Guard, Space Force, Guardsmen, Service, Air National Guard, Hawaii Air National Guards, Air Force, Space Force Guardians, " Air Force, Alaska Air National, Airmen, Colorado Air National Guard, Tech, National Governors Association, United States Space Force, Rayburn House, Capitol, Getty Images Air Force, Army Guard, National Guard, Army National Guard, United States Space Command, Space Development, Air National Guardsmen, Air Force Staff, Colorado Air National, 233rd Space Group, Department of, National Guardsmen, Florida Air National Guard, Cape Canaveral Space Force, Guard, Brig, Colorado National Guard Locations: Alaska , Colorado, United States, Washington , DC, Niagara Falls , New York, Alaska , California , Colorado , Florida, Hawaii , New York, Ohio, Florida

☆ Biden faces widening partisan split over Israel
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

CNN —President Joe Biden is facing more critical moments this week that will test his fraught relationship with his base over Israel’s war in Gaza and potentially widen the partisan split about the Jewish state that has been building for years. Against this backdrop, partisan polarization about Israel among American voters was already widening years before the brutal Hamas attack last October and the devastating Israeli response it triggered. An array of polls this spring show how the war in Gaza has hardened this partisan split. Nearly half of Democrats, but only a little over one-fifth of Republicans in the CBS poll, said the US should pressure Israel to stop the fighting. “Biden has a Democratic caucus that is putting a lot of faith in this process,” she said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Long, Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, “, ”, Aaron David Miller, Biden, Harry Truman, Lyndon B, Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W, Bush, Reagan, George W, Donald Trump, Clinton, Barack Obama, Republicans —, Obama, Israel, Biden —, Gallup, Trump, That’s, Chuck Schumer, Mike Johnson, Biden’s, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, Waleed Shahid, Shahid, David, it’s Goliath, David ”, Miller, “ Biden, ’ ”, Ben Rhodes, ” Biden, “ We’re, Saudi Arabia — “, Mark Mellman, Schumer, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Israel’s, Chris Murphy of, Chris Van Hollen, Chris Coons, Tim Kaine, Virginia, Van Hollen, Amanda Klasing, — Organizations: CNN, Israel, Republican, Democratic, Gallup Organization, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Holocaust Memorial, GOP, Whites, Republican Party, Republicans, Gallup, Trump, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Quinnipiac University, CBS, Liberal, American Israel Public Affairs Committee, AIPAC, National Security Council, Amnesty International, Amnesty Locations: Gaza, Israel, United States, Iran, Quinnipiac, Washington, New York, Missouri, Yom Kippur, Saudi Arabia, Sens, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Rafah

☆ Gaza Isn’t Root of Biden’s Struggles With Young Voters, Polls Show
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Charles Homans | Neil Vigdor | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Young Americans’ outrage over the Israel-Hamas war has dominated the political conversation for weeks. But these headlines are not reflective of young voters’ top concerns this election year, according to recent polls. Surveys taken in recent months show young voters are more likely to sympathize with Palestinians in the conflict, but few of them rank the Israel-Hamas war among their top issues in the 2024 election. Like other voters, young people often put economic concerns at the top the list. And while young voters are cooler to Mr. Biden than they were at the same point in 2020, there is little evidence that American support for the Israeli invasion of Gaza is a critical factor in their relative discontent.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, ”, Devon Schwartz Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Columbia University, University of Texas Locations: Israel, Gaza, Austin

☆ We are 6 months from the 2024 presidential election. Here's where things stand.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-05 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewWith six months until Election Day, the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is already in high gear. In March, Biden and Trump clinched enough delegates to secure the Democratic and GOP presidential nominations, respectively, ahead of their party conventions. AP Photo/David YeazellIn 2020, Biden won the election by winning core Democratic states and every major swing state except for North Carolina, which he lost by one percentage point. AdvertisementA win in North Carolina could also give Biden breathing room as he faces challenges in other swing states. Many of these voters backed Biden in 2020 but say their support of the president is not guaranteed in November.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, RealClearPolling, David Yeazell, He's, It's, Barack Obama, Haley, Roe, Wade, Gash, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: Service, Trump, Democratic, Florida Gov, Business, Trump —, Biden, Harvard, NPR, Marist, AP, The Washington Post, Arizona, Republicans, Arizona —, GOP, Israel, Columbia University, Ivy League, Michigan Locations: Manhattan, — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Wilmington , North Carolina, North Carolina, Michigan , Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Gaza, Israel, New York

☆ 'Big downside revisions coming': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns jobs data will shockingly turn sour in the next 6 months — and says a stock-market AI bubble is starting to unrav
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury

☆ Why election polls were so wrong in 2016 and 2020 — and what's changing to fix that
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atkeson, a political scientist who researches election surveys and public opinion, has been conducting voter polls since 2004. She is currently a professor at Florida State University and has authored several books. "People were not answering their phones," Rachael Cobb, a political science professor at Suffolk University, told CNBC. Polarization and technology are among the obstacles that pollsters cite as complicating the task of taking accurate voter surveys. As a result, over the past several election cycles, polling organizations have made some major mistakes.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Lonna Atkeson, Atkeson, Rachael Cobb Organizations: Florida, Republican, Florida State University, CNBC, Suffolk University Locations: Loudon , New Hampshire

☆ Why many Americans still feel bad about the economy despite strong data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeff Huang | In Jefftchuang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

These are the kinds of questions used by the University of Michigan to calculate the Consumer Sentiment Index, an economic indicator measuring how people feel about the economy. That survey and others show there is a pervasive sense of disconnect between the overall economic picture and how people feel about the economy. Despite slowing inflation, a healthy labor market with record-low unemployment, and stocks that remain in a bull market, consumer sentiment remains below pre-pandemic levels. "People don't tend to think in terms of inflation—economists do," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Normal people think in terms of price levels."

Persons: Joanne Hsu, Paul Donovan Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S

☆ Live Updates: The April Jobs Report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Lydia Depillis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

PinnedIt’s been a hot spring for the American labor market, and while the summer forecast is milder, it’s not clear when the cool-down will begin. The last three months have seen an upswing in job creation, bending what had been a bumpy but definite downtrend since the post-pandemic resurgence. Does that mean the labor market is taking off again without ever having touched down? Workers are quitting their jobs at even lower rates than they were in 2019. “You don’t have that cost of onboarding and starting over again if you can hold on to them.”

Persons: It’s, ”, Stephen Brown, Belinda Román, “ Organizations: Labor Department, North, Capital Economics, Institute for Supply Management, National Federation of Independent, Workers, St, Mary’s University Locations: North America, San Antonio

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